Industry organisation the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) says its late mandarin export estimate for the 2026 season confirms that there is stability in production, although the numbers show a slight decrease compared to last year's late mandarin export figures.

This also represents a stabilisation after consecutive years of strong growth.

Owing to their later harvesting window, late mandarins are not included in the citrus industry’s first-round estimates and are released about one month after the initial projections for other citrus categories.

Within the late mandarin category, the Leanri variety continues to show modest growth, increasing by 13% to an estimated 2.6-million 15 kg cartons, up from 2.3-million 15 kg cartons in the 2025 season.

Further, Orri volumes are slightly lower at an estimated 2.4-million 15 kg cartons, which is down 11% from last year’s 2.7-million 15 kg cartons.

The other late mandarins category shows growth of 11% to an estimated four-million 15 kg cartons this year, up from 3.6-million 15 kg cartons in the prior season. The increase is being driven predominantly by the Royal Honey Murcott variety, the CGA says.

The largest late mandarin category, the Nadorcott/Tango variety, shows a small decline of 1.6% to an estimated 30.5-million 15 kg cartons this season, down from 31-million 15 kg cartons in 2025.

This decrease is largely attributable to marginally lower expected crop figures in the Eastern Cape and the Western Cape compared with 2025’s exceptionally strong performance in those regions.

The Western Cape accounts for about 36% of the Nadorcott/Tango category, while the Eastern Cape contributes about 23%. Together, they account for nearly 60% of total volumes and any regional variation in these two provinces has a notable impact on overall projections, the CGA notes.

“The figures reflect a relatively steady position. However, this is an estimate and there are a lot of variables at play. One significant variable is the situation in the Middle East, where both demand and transit times are expected to be affected.

“We are monitoring the situation and the CGA will provide regular updates to growers,” says CGA Mandarin Focus Group chairperson Hendrik Warnich.

Further, with the late mandarin figures now included, Southern Africa is expected to have about 209-million 15 kg cartons of citrus available for export, which represents a 2% increase compared with the packed-for-export figure of 203.9-million 15 kg cartons in 2025.